How do bookmakers calculate greyhound racing odds?

Bookmakers start by assessing each dog's recent form, trap draw, grade, trainer record, and running style to estimate the probability of each runner winning. These probabilities are converted to odds, then adjusted to build in an overround — the bookmaker's profit margin, typically 115–125% across a six-dog race. After the initial prices are set, the market reacts to punter money: dogs attracting heavy support shorten in price, while those receiving little interest drift. The Starting Price captures the final state of the market at trap rise. The odds are not a pure prediction — they are a commercial product balanced between probability assessment and liability management.

What does SP mean and should I take the price or wait for Starting Price?

SP stands for Starting Price — the official odds returned at the moment the traps open, as recorded by independent SP reporters watching the on-course market. Whether to take an early fixed price or wait for SP depends on your assessment of market direction. If you believe the dog will attract support and shorten, take the price early to lock in value. If you think the dog will drift or if you are unsure, waiting for SP is reasonable — especially if your bookmaker offers Best Odds Guaranteed, which pays the better of your fixed price and the SP on qualifying BAGS and BEGS meetings. BOG removes much of the timing risk.

How often does the favourite win in greyhound racing — and what does that mean for my bets?

The favourite wins approximately 35% of UK graded greyhound races. This means the market leader fails roughly two out of every three races. For punters, the implication is significant: blindly backing favourites is a losing strategy over time because the short odds rarely compensate for the 65% failure rate. The real opportunity lies in the second, third, and fourth choices in the market, where public money tends to be lighter and bookmaker prices can overestimate a dog's chance of losing. Consistent profit comes from identifying value across the full field, not from following the crowd onto short-priced favourites.

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